ALMOST a century ago, the United States decided to make high school
nearly universal. Around the same time, much of Europe decided that
universal high school was a waste. Not everybody, European intellectuals
argued, should go to high school.
It’s clear who made the right decision. The educated American masses
helped create the American century, as the economists Claudia Goldin and
Lawrence Katz have written. The new ranks of high school graduates made
factories more efficient and new industries possible.
Today, we are having an updated version of the same debate. Television,
newspapers and blogs are filled with the case against college for the
masses: It saddles students with debt; it does not guarantee a good job;
it isn’t necessary for many jobs. Not everybody, the skeptics say,
should go to college.
The argument has the lure of counterintuition and does have grains of
truth. Too many teenagers aren’t ready to do college-level work.
Ultimately, though, the case against mass education is no better than it
was a century ago.
The evidence is overwhelming that college is a better investment for most graduates than in the past. A new study
even shows that a bachelor’s degree pays off for jobs that don’t
require one: secretaries, plumbers and cashiers. And, beyond money,
education seems to make people happier and healthier.
“Sending more young Americans to college is not a panacea,” says David Autor, an M.I.T. economist who studies the labor market. “Not sending them to college would be a disaster.”
The most unfortunate part of the case against college is that it
encourages children, parents and schools to aim low. For those families
on the fence — often deciding whether a student will be the first to
attend — the skepticism becomes one more reason to stop at high school.
Only about 33 percent of young adults get a four-year degree today,
while another 10 percent receive a two-year degree.
So it’s important to dissect the anti-college argument, piece by piece.
It obviously starts with money. Tuition numbers can be eye-popping, and
student debt has increased significantly. But there are two main reasons
college costs aren’t usually a problem for those who graduate.
First, many colleges are not very expensive, once financial aid is taken into account.
Average net tuition and fees at public four-year colleges this past
year were only about $2,000 (though Congress may soon cut federal
financial aid).
Second, the returns from a degree have soared. Three decades ago,
full-time workers with a bachelor’s degree made 40 percent more than
those with only a high-school diploma. Last year, the gap
reached 83 percent. College graduates, though hardly immune from the
downturn, are also far less likely to be unemployed than non-graduates.
Skeptics like to point out that the income gap isn’t rising as fast as
it once was, especially for college graduates who don’t get an advanced
degree. But the gap remains enormous — and bigger than ever. Skipping
college because the pace of gains has slowed is akin to skipping your
heart medications because the pace of medical improvement isn’t what it
used to be.
The Hamilton Project,
a research group in Washington, has just finished a comparison of
college with other investments. It found that college tuition in recent
decades has delivered an inflation-adjusted annual return of more than
15 percent. For stocks, the historical return is 7 percent. For real
estate, it’s less than 1 percent.
Another study being released this weekend — by Anthony Carnevale and Stephen J. Rose
of Georgetown — breaks down the college premium by occupations and
shows that college has big benefits even in many fields where a degree
is not crucial.
Construction workers, police officers, plumbers, retail salespeople and
secretaries, among others, make significantly more with a degree than
without one. Why? Education helps people do higher-skilled work, get
jobs with better-paying companies or open their own businesses.
This follows the pattern of the early 20th century, when blue- and
white-collar workers alike benefited from having a high-school diploma.
When confronted with such data, skeptics sometimes reply that colleges
are mostly a way station for smart people. But that’s not right either.
Various natural experiments — like teenagers’ proximity to a campus,
which affects whether they enroll — have shown that people do acquire
skills in college.
Even a much-quoted recent study
casting doubt on college education, by an N.Y.U. sociologist and two
other researchers, was not so simple. It found that only 55 percent of
freshmen and sophomores made statistically significant progress on an
academic test. But the margin of error was large enough that many more
may have made progress.
Either way, the general skills that colleges teach, like discipline and
persistence, may be more important than academics anyway.
None of this means colleges are perfect. Many have abysmal graduation
rates. Yet the answer is to improve colleges, not abandon them. Given
how much the economy changes, why would a high-school diploma forever
satisfy most citizens’ educational needs?
Or think about it this way: People tend to be clear-eyed about this debate in their own lives. For instance, when researchers asked low-income teenagers how much more college graduates made than non-graduates, the teenagers made excellent estimates. And in a national survey, 94 percent of parents said they expected their child to go to college.
Then there are the skeptics themselves, the professors, journalists and
others who say college is overrated. They, of course, have degrees and
often spend tens of thousands of dollars sending their children to
expensive colleges.
I don’t doubt that the skeptics are well meaning. But, in the end, their
case against college is an elitist one — for me and not for thee. And
that’s rarely good advice.
David Leonhardt is a columnist for the business section of The New York Times.