The latest economic data have dashed any hope of a quick end to
America’s job drought, which has already gone on so long that the
average unemployed American has been out of work for almost 40 weeks.
Yet there is no political will to do anything about the situation. Far
from being ready to spend more on job creation, both parties agree that
it’s time to slash spending — destroying jobs in the process — with the
only difference being one of degree.
Nor is the Federal Reserve riding to the rescue. On Tuesday, Ben
Bernanke, the Fed chairman, acknowledged the grimness of the economic
picture but indicated that he will do nothing about it.
And debt relief for homeowners — which could have done a lot to promote
overall economic recovery — has simply dropped off the agenda. The
existing program for mortgage relief has been a bust, spending only a
tiny fraction of the funds allocated, but there seems to be no interest
in revamping and restarting the effort.
The situation is similar in Europe, but arguably even worse. In
particular, the European Central Bank’s hard-money, anti-debt-relief
rhetoric makes Mr. Bernanke sound like William Jennings Bryan.
What lies behind this trans-Atlantic policy paralysis? I’m increasingly
convinced that it’s a response to interest-group pressure. Consciously
or not, policy makers are catering almost exclusively to the interests
of rentiers — those who derive lots of income from assets, who lent
large sums of money in the past, often unwisely, but are now being
protected from loss at everyone else’s expense.
Of course, that’s not the way what I call the Pain Caucus makes its
case. Instead, the argument against helping the unemployed is framed in
terms of economic risks: Do anything to create jobs and interest rates
will soar, runaway inflation will break out, and so on. But these risks
keep not materializing. Interest rates remain near historic lows, while
inflation outside the price of oil — which is determined by world
markets and events, not U.S. policy — remains low.
And against these hypothetical risks one must set the reality of an
economy that remains deeply depressed, at great cost both to today’s
workers and to our nation’s future. After all, how can we expect to
prosper two decades from now when millions of young graduates are, in
effect, being denied the chance to get started on their careers?
Ask for a coherent theory behind the abandonment of the unemployed and
you won’t get an answer. Instead, members of the Pain Caucus seem to be
making it up as they go along, inventing ever-changing rationales for
their never-changing policy prescriptions.
While the ostensible reasons for inflicting pain keep changing, however,
the policy prescriptions of the Pain Caucus all have one thing in
common: They protect the interests of creditors, no matter the cost.
Deficit spending could put the unemployed to work — but it might hurt
the interests of existing bondholders. More aggressive action by the Fed
could help boost us out of this slump — in fact, even Republican
economists have argued that a bit of inflation might be exactly what the
doctor ordered — but deflation, not inflation, serves the interests of
creditors. And, of course, there’s fierce opposition to anything
smacking of debt relief.
Who are these creditors I’m talking about? Not hard-working, thrifty
small business owners and workers, although it serves the interests of
the big players to pretend that it’s all about protecting little guys
who play by the rules. The reality is that both small businesses and
workers are hurt far more by the weak economy than they would be by,
say, modest inflation that helps promote recovery.
No, the only real beneficiaries of Pain Caucus policies (aside from the
Chinese government) are the rentiers: bankers and wealthy individuals
with lots of bonds in their portfolios.
And that explains why creditor interests bulk so large in policy; not
only is this the class that makes big campaign contributions, it’s the
class that has personal access to policy makers — many of whom go to
work for these people when they exit government through the revolving
door. The process of influence doesn’t have to involve raw corruption
(although that happens, too). All it requires is the tendency to assume
that what’s good for the people you hang out with, the people who seem
so impressive in meetings — hey, they’re rich, they’re smart, and they
have great tailors — must be good for the economy as a whole.
But the reality is just the opposite: creditor-friendly policies are
crippling the economy. This is a negative-sum game, in which the attempt
to protect the rentiers from any losses is inflicting much larger
losses on everyone else. And the only way to get a real recovery is to
stop playing that game.