美聯儲將在14日議息會議上評估6,000億美元債券購買計劃的效果，并討論國會減稅計劃的潛在影響，減稅政策降低了美聯儲擴大債券購買規模的壓力。

綜合媒體12月14日報導，美聯儲11月推出飽受批評的6,000億美元資產購買計劃，以刺激經濟，其目前將對此舉的效果進行評估。

美聯儲主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)和其同僚14日將舉行2010年最後一次政策會議，預計不會有政策上的改動。相反，美聯儲決策者將評估這一計劃的效果，并討論國會減稅計劃的潛在影響。

美聯儲11月3日宣布其第二輪刺激政策之后，股市開始走高。這對經濟是有促進作用的，因為更大規模的股票投資組合使得人們，尤其是富人更加傾向於擴大支出。

而另一方面，抵押貸款利率上漲，這違背了美聯儲資產購買計劃規定目標之一。30年期固定利率抵押貸款利率已經上升至4.61%。這較11月份的4.17%的近40年最低水平已大幅上升。

美聯儲決定至6月底購買6,000億美元的政府債券，旨在刺激美國人擴大支出，從而刺激經濟。

甚至支持者都擔心，美聯儲計劃的效果是溫和的。甚至美聯儲推出此舉之后，伯南克施壓國會通過經濟刺激舉措進行干預。伯南克警告稱，美聯儲不能單獨解決經濟問題。

從國會共和黨到美聯儲部門官員的批評家們也表示，他們擔心美聯儲的干涉將刺激通脹以及華爾街的投機性買入，同時對刺激經濟沒有太大作用。

因經濟增長非常緩慢，美國11月失業率激增至9.8%的7個月高點。美國失業率已經連續19個月超出9%，為記錄以來的最長時期。美國失業率2011年能再次突破10%，正如2009年末一樣。

持續的高失業率是美聯儲決定實施債券購買計劃的一個主要因素。

美國總統奧巴馬和參議院共和黨達成的減稅協議正在增加經濟的希望。經濟學家稱，其將刺激個人和企業支出。而這將加強經濟增長并促使企業增加雇傭量。

減稅計劃的要點包括：將2001年和2003年收入稅削減政策延期兩年；將長期失業救濟延期13個月；2011年削減雇員社會保險稅收。

摩根大通(JPMorgan)經濟學家Michael Feroli表示，“會議幾乎可以確定地會討論財政政策的潛在改變，但聲明可能將避免提及這一爭議性話題”。

美聯儲推出6,000億美元計劃時，其表示如果經濟仍然疲弱，有可能將債券購買規模擴大至6,000億美元以上。如果經濟增長強於預期，其將縮小債券購買規模。

當美聯儲進行干預購買國債時，其購買之舉可能壓低債券收益率。另一方面，如果其出售債券或縮小購買規模，收益率可能上升。

伯南克在一個采訪中表示，美聯儲將定期審核債券購買計劃。

經濟學家稱，即使減稅政策將給予經濟額外幫助，美聯儲可能將堅持其計劃。減稅政策降低了美聯儲擴大債券購買規模的壓力。經濟學家預期，但2011年高失業率將阻止美聯儲縮減購買規模。

鑒於高失業率的擔憂，美聯儲將保持關鍵利率處於接近於零的記錄最低水平，并再次承諾將在”更長時期“內維持利率不變。

即使實施第二輪刺激舉措，美聯儲預測2011年失業率可能高達9.1%，2012年總統大選年高達8.2%。伯南克近期警告稱，可能還需要四五年時間才能將失業率降至5%或6%的歷史正常水平。

(杜慧琴 編譯)

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美國量化寬鬆一波未平一波又起，由於美國勞工部日前公布的11月就業報告結果不如預期，聯準會主席柏南克透露，有可能會擴大2次量化寬鬆(QE2)的金額上限超過6000億美元，亦不排除再度推出第3波的量化寬鬆貨幣政策(QE3)，激勵今(6)日台北股匯市勁揚，加權指數跳空開高，早盤站上8700點；新台幣匯率早盤更是強升超過6角。

新台幣早盤以30.745元平盤開出，在資金行情推升之下，新台幣匯率一路勁揚，早盤升幅突破6角，一度勁揚6.35角，匯價走高到30.11元，熱錢大軍再度兵臨30元大關之下。

美國勞工部日前公布11月份的就業報告，全美失業率高於預期的9.6%，走高到9.8%，創下4個月以來的來新高，由於就業狀況並未明顯改善，顯示美國經濟復甦步調減緩。也促使柏南奇在接受訪問時指出，政府將採取一切行動來打擊失業率，除了有機會加碼QE2，甚至不排除推出QE3的可能。

對於美國有可能再度灑錢救市，台灣央行則是嚴陣以待；在QE3的預期心理影推升下，台北股匯市早盤齊揚，不但股市開高走高突破8700點，新台幣兌美元匯率更是升逾6角，盤中升幅創下波段新高；截至上午10時，新台幣仍升值5.83角，來到30.162元價位。

Times Topics > Subjects > Q > Quantitative Easing

Quantitative Easing

Updated: Nov. 3, 2010

Central banks usually strengthen the economy through a single,vastly powerful tool — lowering interest rates. When the Federal Reserve makes it cheaper for banks to borrow money, that stimulus generally flows through the entire economy, as the banks make loans that in turn stimulate economic activity.

But when times are so dire that banks are reluctant to lend orborrowers to borrow whatever the cost, interest rate cuts lose their punch. That happened in Japan after the bursting of its real-estate bubble in 1991, and happened again in the wake of the credit crisis that upended Wall Street in the fall of 2008. In those circumstances, central banks turn to what economists call "quantitative easing'' —unorthodox methods of pumping money into an economy and working to lower interest rates that central bankers do not usually control.

The most usual approach is large-scale purchases of debt. The effect is the same as printing money in vast quantities, but without ever turning on the printing presses. The Fed buys government or other bonds and writes down that it has done so — what is called "expanding the balance sheet." The bank then makes that money available for banks to borrow, thereby expanding the amount of money sloshing around the economy thereby, it hopes, reducing long-term interest rates.

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The Federal Reserve introduced a slew of lending programs in its effort to revive corporate and consumer lending.  After the financial crisis of September 2008, the Fed’s balance sheet ballooned from about $900 billion to more than $2 trillion as it created new money and lent it out through all its new programs. It brought the purchase program to an end in the spring of 2010, but as the recovery faltered Fed officials signaled in the fall that they were prepared to undertake a new round to try to fight persistently low inflation and high unemployment.

First the bank began to reinvest proceeds from its mortgage-related holdings to buy Treasury debt; it plans to purchase $250 billion to $300 billion worth in that way. Then, the day after the November 2010 elections, the Fed announced that it would purchase an additional $600 billion in long-term Treasury securities. The two moves would just about double the $800 billion or so in Treasury debt already on the Fed’s balance sheet.

Most economists credit quantitative easing, along with near-zero interest rates, the stimulus bill and the federal bank bailout, with preventing a global depression. But they also made the Fed the focus of unusual scrutiny and criticism, with some critics warning it was sowing the seeds of future inflation.  In October 2010, Mr. Bernanke gave a detailed account of the measures he said the Fed could use to prevent such long-term damage.

Other economists have warned that quantitative easing may be of limited use when the problem is a lack of demand, rather than of liquidity — that consumers and businesses are uninterested in spending in the face of high unemployment no matter how much cheap money isaround.

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/q/quantitative_easing/index.html