FOR the second year in a row, the Monday after Thanksgiving — so-called
Cyber Monday, when online retailers offer discounts to lure holiday
shoppers — was the biggest sales day of the year, totaling some $1.25
billion and overwhelming the sales figures racked up by brick-and-mortar
stores three days before, on Black Friday, the former perennial
record-holder.
Such numbers may seem proof that America is, indeed, online. But they
mask an emerging division, one that has worrisome implications for our
economy and society. Increasingly, we are a country in which only the
urban and suburban well-off have truly high-speed Internet access, while
the rest — the poor and the working class — either cannot afford access
or use restricted wireless access as their only connection to the
Internet. As our jobs, entertainment, politics and even health care move
online, millions are at risk of being left behind.
Telecommunications, which in theory should bind us together, has often
divided us in practice. Until the late 20th century, the divide split
those with phone access and those without it. Then it was the Web: in
1995 the Commerce Department published its first look at the “digital
divide,” finding stark racial, economic and geographic gaps between
those who could get online and those who could not.
“While a standard telephone line can be an individual’s pathway to the
riches of the Information Age,” the report said, “a personal computer
and modem are rapidly becoming the keys to the vault.” If you were
white, middle-class and urban, the Internet was opening untold doors of
information and opportunity. If you were poor, rural or a member of a
minority group, you were fast being left behind.
Over the last decade, cheap Web access over phone lines brought millions
to the Internet. But in recent years the emergence of services like
video-on-demand, online medicine and Internet classrooms have redefined
the state of the art: they require reliable, truly high-speed
connections, the kind available almost exclusively from the nation’s
small number of very powerful cable companies. Such access means
expensive contracts, which many Americans simply cannot afford.
While we still talk about “the” Internet, we increasingly have two
separate access marketplaces: high-speed wired and second-class
wireless. High-speed access is a superhighway for those who can afford
it, while racial minorities and poorer and rural Americans must make do
with a bike path.
Just over 200 million Americans have high-speed, wired Internet access
at home, and almost two-thirds of them get it through their local cable
company. The connections are truly high-speed: based on a technological
standard called Docsis 2.0 or 3.0, they can reach up to 105 megabits per
second, fast enough to download a music album in three seconds.
These customers are the targets for the next generation of Internet
services, technology that will greatly enhance their careers, education
and quality of life. Within a decade, patients at home will be able to
speak with their doctors online and thus get access to lower-cost,
higher-quality care. High-speed connections will also allow for distance
education through real-time videoconferencing; already, thousands of
high school students are earning diplomas via virtual classrooms.
Households will soon be able to monitor their energy use via smart-grid
technology to keep costs and carbon dioxide emissions down. Even the way
that wired America works will change: many job applications are already
possible only online; soon, job interviews will be held by way of
videoconference, saving cost and time.
But the rest of America will most likely be left out of all this.
Millions are still offline completely, while others can afford only
connections over their phone lines or via wireless smartphones. They can
thus expect even lower-quality health services, career opportunities,
education and entertainment options than they already receive. True,
Americans of all stripes are adopting smartphones at breakneck speeds;
in just over four years the number has jumped from about 10 percent to
about 35 percent; among Hispanics and African-Americans, it’s roughly 44
percent. Most of the time, smartphone owners also have wired access at
home: the Pew Internet and American Life Project recently reported that
59 percent of American adults with incomes above $75,000 had a
smartphone, and a 2010 study by the Federal Communications Commission
found that more than 90 percent of people at that income level had wired
high-speed Internet access at home.
But that is not true for lower-income and minority Americans. According
to numbers released last month by the Department of Commerce, a mere 4
out of every 10 households with annual household incomes below $25,000
in 2010 reported having wired Internet access at home, compared with the
vast majority — 93 percent — of households with incomes exceeding
$100,000. Only slightly more than half of all African-American and
Hispanic households (55 percent and 57 percent, respectively) have wired
Internet access at home, compared with 72 percent of whites.
These numbers are likely to grow even starker as the 30 percent of
Americans without any kind of Internet access come online. When they do,
particularly if the next several years deliver subpar growth in
personal income, they will probably go for the only option that is at
all within their reach: wireless smartphones. A wired high-speed
Internet plan might cost $100 a month; a smartphone plan might cost half
that, often with a free or heavily discounted phone thrown in.
The problem is that smartphone access is not a substitute for wired. The
vast majority of jobs require online applications, but it is hard to
type up a résumé on a hand-held device; it is hard to get a college
degree from a remote location using wireless. Few people would start a
business using only a wireless connection.
It is not just inconvenient — many of these activities are physically
impossible via a wireless connection. By their nature, the airwaves
suffer from severe capacity limitations: the same five gigabytes of data
that might take nine minutes to download over a high-speed cable
connection would take an hour and 15 minutes to travel over a wireless
connection.
Even if a smartphone had the technical potential to compete with wired,
users would still be hampered by the monthly data caps put in place by
AT&T and Verizon, by far the largest wireless carriers in America.
For example, well before finishing the download of a single two-hour,
high-definition movie from iTunes over a 4G wireless network, a typical
subscriber would hit his or her monthly cap and start incurring $10 per
gigabyte in overage charges. If you think this is a frivolous concern,
for “movie” insert an equally large data stream, like “business
meeting.”
Public libraries are taking up the slack and buckling under the strain.
Nearly half of librarians say that their connections are insufficient to
meet patrons’ needs. And it is hard to imagine conducting a job
interview in a library.
IN the past, the cost of new technologies has dropped over time, and
eventually many Americans could afford a computer and a modem to access a
standard phone line. Phone service — something 96 percent of Americans
have — was sold at regulated rates and the phone companies were forced
to allow competing Internet access providers to share their lines.
But there is reason to believe this time is different. Today, the
problem is about affording unregulated high-speed Internet service —
provided, in the case of cable, by a few for-profit companies with very
little local competition and almost no check on their prices. They have
to bear all the cost of infrastructure and so have no incentive to
expand into rural areas, where potential customers are relatively few
and far between. (The Federal Communications Commission recently
announced a plan to convert subsidies that once supported basic rural
telephone services into subsidies for basic Internet access.)
The bigger problem is the lack of competition in cable markets. Though
there are several large cable companies nationwide, each dominates its
own fragmented kingdom of local markets: Comcast is the only game in
Philadelphia, while Time Warner dominates Cleveland. That is partly
because it is so expensive to lay down the physical cables, and
companies, having paid for those networks, guard them jealously,
clustering their operations and spending tens of millions of dollars to
lobby against laws that might oblige them to share their infrastructure.
Cable’s only real competition comes from Verizon’s FiOS fiber-optic
service, which can provide speeds up to 150 megabits per second. But
FiOS is available to only about 10 percent of households. AT&T’s
U-verse, which has about 4 percent of the market, cannot provide
comparable speeds because, while it uses fiber-optic cable to reach
neighborhoods, the signal switches to slower copper lines to connect to
houses. And don’t even think about DSL, which carries just a fraction of
the data needed to handle the services that cable users take for
granted.
Lacking competition from other cable companies or alternate delivery
technologies, each of the country’s large cable distributors has the
ability to raise prices in its region for high-speed Internet services.
Those who can still afford it are paying higher and higher rates for the
same quality of service, while those who cannot are turning to
wireless.
IT doesn’t have to be this way, as a growing number of countries
demonstrate. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
ranks America 12th among developed nations for wired Internet access,
and it is safe to assume that high prices have played a role in lowering
our standing. So America, the country that invented the Internet and
still leads the world in telecommunications innovation, is lagging far
behind in actual use of that technology.
The answer to this puzzle is regulatory policy. Over the last 10 years,
we have deregulated high-speed Internet access in the hope that
competition among providers would protect consumers. The result? We now
have neither a functioning competitive market for high-speed wired
Internet access nor government oversight.
By contrast, governments that have intervened in high-speed Internet
markets have seen higher numbers of people adopting the technology,
doing so earlier and at lower subscription charges. Many of these
countries have required telecommunications providers to sell access to
parts of their networks to competitors at regulated rates, so that
competition can lower prices.
Meanwhile, they are working toward, or already have, fiber-optic
networks that will be inexpensive, standardized, ubiquitous and equally
fast for uploading and downloading. Many of those countries, not only
advanced ones like Sweden and Japan but also less-developed ones like
Portugal and Russia, are already well on their way to wholly replacing
their standard telephone connections with state-of-the-art fiber-optic
connections that will even further reduce the cost to users, while
significantly improving access speeds.
The only thing close is FiOS. But, according to Diffraction Analysis, a
research firm, it costs six times as much as comparable service in Hong
Kong, five times as much as in Paris and two and a half times as much as
in Amsterdam. When it comes to the retail cost of fiber access in
America, we do about as well as Istanbul.
The new digital divide raises important questions about social equity in
an information-driven world. But it is also a matter of protecting our
economic future. Thirty years from now, African-Americans and Latinos,
who are at the greatest risk of being left behind in the Internet
revolution, will be more than half of our work force. If we want to be
competitive in the global economy, we need to make sure every American
has truly high-speed wired access to the Internet for a reasonable cost.
Susan P. Crawford is a professor
at the Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law and a former special assistant
to President Obama for science, technology and innovation policy.