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[中国] 通貨膨脹嚴重,再次升息

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人行升息/巴曙松:打通膨 貨幣緊縮提前
【經濟日報╱記者鄭圭雯/綜合報導】
   
2010.12.26 03:53 am

中國人民銀行(大陸央行)昨(25)日晚間突然宣布升息,大陸國務院發展研究中心金融研究所副所長巴曙松在接受中新社記者專訪時表示,「央行此舉顯示貨幣政策正在加速回歸常態」,超前性地在2011年上半年物價高點到來之前緊縮,有利於抑制通貨膨脹的預期。

巴曙松認為,此次升息看作年內六次上調存款準備金率與一次升息之後,又一次重要貨幣政策的調整。他強調,以1年期加權存款利率計算,此次升息縮小了負利率水準,並使中長期存款接近正利率。

明年中國通膨壓力將會如何?大陸業內普遍預計,明年上半年中國通膨將達到金融危機以來的峰值,由於利率政策有「顯效時滯較長」的特點,故提前在今年升息,有利於縮短政策時滯。

就在升息的前一晚,大陸央行發布副行長胡曉煉女士的講話,在提出「差別準備金動態調整」。同時,亦強調將使用「價格和數量工具」,升息作為當下的輿論焦點,既未被高估,亦未被低估,言論看來政策採「審慎靈活」。

事實上,就負利率問題對通膨與資產價格泡沫的負面意義,官方與市場早有共識,只是對進一步緊縮銀根的時間點仍在爭論,尤其是貨幣緊縮利器是在明年年中物價高點時推出,還是在明年年初推出?巴曙松認為,「政策緊縮操作明顯提前」。


中國升息 學者:抗通膨
2010/12/26 12:57:16   

(中央社記者林惠君台北26日電)中國人民銀行昨天宣布,今天起升息0.25個百分點。學者表示,因應通膨疑慮,再度升息;學者認為,台灣與中國貿易依存度高,也須密切注意。

世新大學經濟系教授兼系主任周濟表示,中國有通膨疑慮,採取升息步驟;台灣目前雖無通膨疑慮,但因與中國貿易依存度高,也須密切注意。

寶華綜合經濟研究院預測,物價上漲壓力升高讓中國人行不斷加大且加快貨幣政策調控速度;若物價上漲壓力無法獲得舒緩,2011年中國恐將持續收緊貨幣政策。若緊縮的貨幣政策失當,導致經濟明顯放緩,將削弱中國引領全球經濟復甦的動能,形成台灣經濟成長另一項風險。

此外,中央銀行將在本週召開理監事會議,是否升息引起外界關注。

對於央行是否採取升息動作,周濟未作明確表示。他指出,雖然台灣目前沒有通膨疑慮,是否升息,「央行會有全盤考量」。

中國人民銀行昨天傍晚宣布,26日起,1年期存貸款基準利率調升0.25個百分點,這是中國人民銀行今年以來第2度升息。991226

http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201012260049



December 25, 2010

China Raises Interest Rates Again to Cool Inflation

BEIJING — China’scentral bank announced on Saturday that it was raising interest ratesfor the second time in about two months in what appears to be along-term campaign to suppress inflation as many ordinary Chineseexpress discontent with rising consumer prices.

The People’s Bank of China said it would raise the one-year benchmarklending rate by 25 basis points to 5.81 percent, and the benchmarkdeposit rate by the same amount to 2.75 percent.

The Chinese economy has been awash in liquidity due to governmentstimulus money and generous lending by state banks. Chinese officialsare now concerned about an overheated economy and the inflationarypressures that come with that.

The fact that China’s economy has remained robust during the globalrecession gives Chinese officials leeway to rein in liquidity. Thecountry has been growing at an average of 10 percent a year, and thestrength of the export industry remains high despite a dip in late2008, when the financial crisis first roiled the United States and thenother parts of the world.

But investment in large capital-intensive projects has also been fueling the economic engine and driving up prices.

Analysts have been saying for months that they expect China to raise interest rates throughout 2011.

Earlier this month, the government reported that the consumer price indexrose 5.1 percent in November, compared with the same period a year ago.It was the largest increase in three years. Since the spring, theyear-on-year increase in the index has been above 3 percent, despitethe government’s desire to keep the average increase below 3 percentfor the entire year.

Chinese leaders are aware of the political dangers of high inflation. Xinhua, the state news agency, reportedon Dec. 17 that Li Keqiang, the vice premier, said at a conference ofgovernment officials that “more efforts should be provided to stabilizeprices next year.” He added that over the next five years, growth ratesshould be defined “reasonably.” Mr. Li is expected to take over asprime minister in 2012 from Wen Jiabao, who now oversees the economy.

Officials have signaled throughout the month that moves will be takento better control spending across the country. China announced on Dec.3 that it would tighten monetary policynext year, shifting it from “relatively loose to prudent.” That was aclear sign that Chinese officials were intensely concerned aboutinflation.

On Dec. 15, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a prominentresearch organization based in Beijing, reported that high inflationand housing prices had contributed to a deepening sense of populardisaffection. The findings of the report were based on a survey of 4,143 people.

Commodity prices were the main concern of urban residents, followed byhealth care and housing prices, according to the findings, which werereported by Xinhua. Rural residents in this year’s survey said healthcare was their top concern, followed by commodity prices.

Job satisfaction among those surveyed was at its lowest in four years, according to the academy.

Also on Dec. 15, the central bank said that satisfaction among people with the current level of priceshad dropped to an 11-year low. The bank’s findings were based on asurvey of 20,000 people during the fourth quarter in 50 cities acrossChina.

The real estate market is another concern. The property market in Chinahas been booming. Rising property prices, along with the governmentstimulus money and loose bank lending, have spurred new developmentsacross the country. Even long-term residents on the tropical southernisland of Hainan have had to grapple with soaring real estate pricesfrom outsiders coming in to buy up land.

Some analysts say this growth has resulted in a gargantuan bubble inthe real estate market, while others argue that the capacity will beput to good use.

A record $560 billion of residential property was sold in 2009, anincrease of 80 percent over 2008, according to government statistics.

In October, the government increased its benchmark lending rate, inwhat appeared to be an effort to tamp down real estate speculation.

Until now, low wages have helped to hold down inflation and keepChina’s export industry competitive. But those wages in the context ofsoaring real estate prices mean that migrant workers from the interiorof China are becoming less tolerant of poor work conditions on thecoasts, where many of China’s export manufacturing factories arelocated. Many workers are now choosing to stay closer to home in theinterior provinces, and some companies are moving their manufacturingcenters inland.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/business/global/26chinarates.html


The stories were taken from the websites of United Daily, Central News Agency, and The New York Times, which are not involved with nor endorses the produciton of this blog.  The copyright remains with its original owners.


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