ECFA是甚麼東西還沒有人知道，連總統自己都說還沒有具體內容。不過為甚麼要ECFA的原因之一：從明(2010)年起，東協國家所組成的自由貿易區將開始運作。難道所有東南亞國協國家對自由貿易區都引頸企盼，只有台灣的產業害怕中國低價商品的競爭，與廉價勞工會壓低台灣的工資水準，並減少工作機會嗎？
中國、印尼、泰國、菲律賓、馬來西亞、新加坡與汶萊於2010年將撤除絕大多數的關稅；而東南亞國協的新會員國：柬埔寨、寮國、越南與緬甸也將於2015年撤銷於其他自由貿易區內會員國家的關稅。
12/17的新聞：
馬英九總統昨（16）日公開表示，希望台灣成為「東協加四」中的第四個成員。馬總統昨天出席台灣東協研究中心開幕典禮時說，台灣計劃和大陸簽兩岸經濟合作架構協議（ECFA），期待藉此與東南亞國家加強互動，希望成為「東協加四」。(聯合報)
馬英九總統昨天在一場研討會上表示，在亞洲區域整合的過程中，台灣絕對不能被孤立，期待繼東協加三（中、日、韓）後，未來台灣也能和東協簽定FTA（自由貿易協定），成為「東協加四」（再加台灣）。但同場與會的馬來西亞前外交部長丹斯里賽哈密直言，東協組成是以國家為單位，台灣要成為「東協加四」是有困難。(自由時報)
所以馬英九總統的戰略是透過中國給予東協施壓讓台灣加入？還是成為其Protégé？還是 territory？國際地位的低下是台灣人最大的屈辱，雖說要賺人家的錢，自尊不用這麼強，身段要柔軟。但是有必要把自己的地位搞到如此不堪嗎？政府禁止到中國投資時，就已經有許許多多的台商因成本、土地與勞動力等等誘因到中國設廠。美國的「進口配額」、美國祭出301條款的報復、對"local content"規範、NAFTA的成立、台灣以「已開發國家」身分加入WTO(許多貿易優惠因此喪失)... 甚麼樣的貿易規則改寫所帶來的挑戰台灣廠商沒經歷過呢？何以一個東協國家的自由貿易協定就慌了！
大企業國際布局，其產品太半也有 made in China 或 Made in Vietnam, 小廠家只有台灣市場，讓廉價的中國與東南亞商品進口後，是否就要倒閉了呢？本土的就業機會是否也變少了呢？政府對「產業升級」沒信心，還是大企業的全球佈局沒信心呢？
況且我們還有一個WTO的平台，即便沒有簽訂FTA，政府相關部會也可以透過WTO的雙邊與多邊談判獲得FTA的效果啊！是我們參與WTO事務的官員太鬆散，還是這個舞台必須讓位給政治明星，所以他們也樂得輕鬆地退下去了呢？！
這樣的論點會不會太cynical了呢？並竟成為「東協加四」，外銷市場變大，就業與所得也都可能增加？但是為了成為「東協加四」，不跑去找「東協」談，卻跑去找東協「加三」裡的三分之ㄧ談判，這樣的邏輯是瞞天過海？亂槍打鳥？緣木求魚？ 釜底抽薪？ 假道伐虢？還是蝴蝶效應的運用？
In Southeast Asia, Unease Over Free Trade Zone
Textiles on display at a market in Jakarta. Indonesian textile andsteel industries are particularly nervous about the lifting of tradetariffs in Asia.
By LIZ GOOCH
Published: December 28, 2009
KUALA LUMPUR — When the clock strikes midnight on New Year’s Eve, China and 10 Southeast Asian nations will usher in the world’s third-largest free trade area. While many industries are eager for tariffs to fall on everything from textiles and rubber to vegetable oils and steel, a few are nervously waiting to see whether the agreement will mean boom or bust for their businesses.
Trade between China and the 10 states that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has soared in recent years, to $192.5 billion in 2008, from $59.6 billion in 2003. The new free trade zone, which will remove tariffs on 90 percent of traded goods, is expected to increase that commerce still more.
The zone will rank behind only the European Economic Area and the North American Free Trade Area in trade volume. It will encompass 1.9 billion people. The free trade area is expected to help Asean countries increase exports, particularly those with commodities that resource-hungry China desperately wants.
The China-Asean free trade area has faced less vocal opposition than the European and North American zones, perhaps because existing tariffs were already low and because it is unlikely to alter commerce patterns radically, analysts say.
However, some manufacturers in Southeast Asia are concerned that cheap Chinese goods may flood their markets, once import taxes are removed, making it more difficult for them to retain or increase their local market shares. Indonesia is so worried that it plans to ask for a delay in removing tariffs from some items like steel products, textiles, petrochemicals and electronics.
“Not everyone in Asean sees this F.T.A. as a plus,” said Sothirak Pou, a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.
Asean and China have gradually reduced many tariffs in recent years. However, under the free trade agreement — which was signed in 2002 — China, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei will have to remove almost all tariffs in 2010.
Asean’s newest members — Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar — will gradually reduce tariffs in coming years and must eliminate them entirely by 2015.
Most of the goods that will become tariff-free in January — including manufactured items — are currently subject to import taxes of about 5 percent. Some agricultural products and parts for motor vehicles and heavy machinery will still face tariffs in 2010, but those will gradually be phased out.
In recent years, China has overtaken the United States to become Asean’s third-largest trading partner after Japan and the European Union. The overall trade balance has shifted slightly in China’s favor, although there are significant differences among Southeast Asian countries’ trade balances, said Thomas Kaegi, head of macroeconomic research for the Asia-Pacific region at UBS Wealth Management Research.
Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand have only small trade deficits with China, while Vietnam’s has grown substantially in recent years. In 2008, Vietnam exported items worth $4.5 billion to China but imported about $15.7 billion worth of Chinese goods.
In Indonesia, the textile and steel industries are particularly nervous about the lifting of tariffs, prompting the government to say that it would ask for a delay on some provisions. No time frame for submitting the request was given, but the Asean secretariat said it had not yet received an official request.
While competing with more Chinese imports may pose new challenges for Asean manufacturers, analysts say increasing their access to the 1.3 billion people of China could produce significant benefits.
Rodolfo Severino, who was secretary general of Asean from 1998 to 2002, identified Malaysia — which already exports palm oil, rubber and natural gas to China — as one of the countries that might benefit most from the removal of tariffs.
But nations like Vietnam that focus on the production of cheap consumer goods are more likely to be hurt, said Mr. Severino, head of the Asean Studies Center at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.
Those countries may need to look for new export products and identify new niche markets, he said: “This is the nature of competition.”
Song Hong, an economist, expects that China will import more agricultural goods, like tropical fruit, from countries like Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam when the trade area takes effect. That could hurt Chinese farmers in southern provinces like Guangxi and Yunnan, said Mr. Song, director of the trade research division at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.
Mr. Sothirak, who was Cambodia’s minister of industry, mines and energy from 1993 to 1998, said the removal of tariffs might help increase Cambodia’s agricultural exports to China. Cambodia needs to diversify its export markets because its exports to the United States and Europe have declined, he said.
While he does not hold much hope that Cambodian textile exports would be able to compete with China’s highly developed garment industry, he said he believed the free trade area might entice more Chinese garment factories to set up operations in Cambodia, where production costs and labor are cheaper.
Pushpanathan Sundram, deputy secretary general of Asean for Asean Economic Community, acknowledged that there would be “some costs involved” for some countries when the free trade area took effect, but he said he believed China and Asean would “mutually benefit.”
Despite the expectations for increasing trade, Mr. Severino predicted that the introduction of the trade zone would not be a “breakthrough event” setting off a dramatic surge in commerce come January.
“There are many factors that traders and investors consider, and the trend has been going this way anyway,” he said. “What this does is to send out good signals and show the determination of governments to make things easier.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/29/business/global/29trade.html?ref=business
A version of this article appeared in print on December 29, 2009, in The International Herald Tribune.
The story was taken from The New York Times. The copyright remains with The New York Times Company. The author of the story and The New York Times are not involved, nor endorse the production of this blog.
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