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Carribean Stud Poker 機率與最佳策略分析

1. expected loss to gambler = 2.555%
2. Optimal strategy in Caribbean Stud is very complicated. The number
of people who know it perfectly is probably zero. However, we can make
two generalizations that cover most hands.

  i. Always raise with a pair or higher.
  ii. Always fold with less than the dealer's qualifying hand (ace/king)

3. Jackpot bet: While the expected return varies depending on the size of the
jackpot, it is a sucker bet the vast majority of time. The average
house edge is 26.46%.

根據簡化的最佳策略應對, 則
* 共有 19933230517200 種牌形組合, 其中
* player 押注看牌而 dealer win 的 path 有 13.67% (Dealer 贏時是贏三單位)
* player fold 的 path 有 47.7%, 此時 dealer 贏一單位
* dealer 不成局的機率 22.73%
* 成局且 player 1 pair 贏 機率 11.75%
* 成局且 player 2 pair 贏 機率2.5%
* 成局且 player 3 條 贏 機率 1.175%
* 成局且 player full house 贏 --> 機率 0.08% --> 10000把只遇到 8 把

簡單講 就是沒牌不要偷機押後面去保前面 這樣死很快
然後 要預備足夠多的時間陪他耗 PL 波動慢 算是適合剛入賭場的人學玩

其他機率或完整分析可參考
http://wizardofodds.com/caribbeanstud