看不懂北朝鮮為甚麼要打那幾枚砲彈,在金大中的陽光政策後,南高麗人民對北朝鮮已經不像以往那般敵對,情況就像中國和台灣一般,所以軍民也不復以往那種對峙的氣氛。但這次有兩個平民死亡,造成南高麗國人民的十分憤慨。國會很快的通過預算購買美國的武器,這應該對美國疲弱的經濟有不小的助益,也讓美國在東北亞的勢力更加鞏固。
而就在胡先生訪美前夕,中國也藉由約束北朝鮮,來修復與美國的種種摩擦。而關於北朝鮮核武問題的六方會談也在美國的反對之下遙遙無期,納北朝險到底得到了甚麼好處呢?就是為了主體意識(Juche ideology)嗎?
. But after a tense week, when the threat of war hung over the KoreanPeninsula, the Obama administration and Beijing seem finally to be onthe same page.
Administration officials said the Chinese government had embraced an American plan to press the North to reconcile with the South after its deadly attacks on a South Korean island and a warship. The United States believes the Chinese also worked successfully to curb NorthKorea’s belligerent behavior.
China’s pressure, several senior officials said this week, might help explain why North Korea did not respond militarily to live-fire drills conducted this week by the South Korean military,when a previous drill drew an artillery barrage from the North that killed two South Korean civilians and two soldiers.
As evidence of the policy shift, officials pointed to recent remarks by China’s foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, in which he urged the North and South “to carry out dialogue and contact.” Previously, Beijing’sresponse had been to propose an emergency meeting of the six-party group that negotiates with North Korea over its nuclear program, a step the United States opposed as rewarding the North’s aggression.
China and the United States still have major differences on issues ranging from currency policy to climate change. And just last Sunday, skeptics pointed out, Beijing blocked a statement in the United Nations Security Council that would have explicitly condemned North Korea for the artillery attack.
Still, the agreement on how to deal with North Korea removes a substantial irritant in the Beijing-Washington relationship four weeks before President Hu Jintaoof China makes a state visit to Washington. It also creates a glimmer of hope, officials said, that the United States can resume a dialogue with North Korea, whose hostile behavior has raised tensions to the highest level since the Korean War.
“The silver lining of last weekend is that the Chinese, for the first time, were worried that things were spinning out of control,” said Victor Cha, a Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who worked in the George W. Bush administration. “It moved the Chinese more in the direction we wanted them to move.”
The Obama administration claims some credit, too, noting that the change came on the heels of a visit to Beijing by American officials, led by Deputy Secretary of State James B. Steinberg. A week before that, President Obama called Mr. Hu and bluntly urged him to put a tighter leash on the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il.
China swiftly dispatched a senior diplomat to Pyongyang, the NorthKorean capital, and officials said he conveyed a strong message about “the unacceptability of attacks and killings of South Koreans,” said asenior American official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.
“The idea that there could be these one-off provocations without expectation of a military response, as the North had behaved in the past, the Chinese now understand that this is no longer the reality, no longer acceptable,” he said.
China’s push for a rapprochement between the North and South is even more significant, another official said, because it unifies the five parties that deal with Pyongyang: the United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. China’s reluctance to press North Korea was sending Pyongyang a mixed message, he said, especially since China is the North’s most influential ally.
Russia’s role has also been important, officials said. The Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, spoke out against the North Korean artillery shelling. And the comments by Mr. Yang, China’s foreign minister, about the need for North-South engagement came in a phone conversation with Mr. Lavrov that was released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
North Korea signaled that it was open to such an engagement in meetings with Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, who made an unofficial visit to Pyongyang last weekend. Mr. Richardson said the North was willing to ship spent fuel rods to South Korea — a move that could effectively end its production of plutonium, from which it has manufactured several nuclear bombs.
Administration officials played down Mr. Richardson’s trip, saying he was carrying no proposals from the United States. Shipping fuel rods to South Korea is not a new idea, one official noted, and the South Korean president, Lee Myung-bak, seems in no mood to accept it. North Korea has also done little to alleviate concerns about its recently disclosed uranium-enrichment facility, aside from its offer to Mr. Richardson to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country.
Nevertheless, Mr. Steinberg and Jeffrey A. Bader, a top White House adviser on Asia, are likely to visit Seoul soon to explore whether the temporary lull in North Korea’s aggression creates an opening for diplomacy.
If the North makes amends for the shelling last month of Yeonpyeong Island and the torpedoing of the South Korea warship, the Cheonan,which killed 46 sailors, officials said it could open the door to contacts between the United States and North Korea. But they were vague about what kind of gesture would be sufficient.
“The South needs to have satisfaction that their concerns over the seacts have been addressed,” an official said. “The North cannot go around the South; they cannot sidestep the South.”
By going ahead with military drills in the face of North Korea’s threats, analysts said Mr. Lee might have bought himself some room to negotiate. But, they added, outsiders should not read too much into the North’s decision to hold its fire; the government’s motives were, asever, cloaked in mystery.
The South Korean defense force staged a joint air and ground military exercise by in Pocheon, South Korea on Thursday.
The North is “fully prepared to launch a sacred war,” the minister ofthe People’s Armed Forces, Kim Young-chun, said in comments carried bythe North’s official Korean Central News Agency and quoted by Westernnews media. North Korea’s comments are typically bellicose, but theyhad been low key this week as South Korea held military exercises across its territory.
On Monday, the South staged live-fire artillery drills on Yeonpyeong Island, which was shelled by the North’s artillery on Nov. 23. Four South Koreans were killed. North Korea claims the waters around Yeonpyeong and disputes the maritime border known as the Northern LimitLine.
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