本篇是作者在中國時報所撰《即將掀起的茶壺風暴》專論，即原載於中國時報A15版專論，2007/02/15的英文版.......又原著文字另經Taipei Times報社編輯翻譯重新修正如後（但部分翻譯內容則超出筆者原先在中國時報專論所提的原意，合先敘明）：
KMT faces uphill battle in next polls
By Chen Chao-chien 陳朝建
Taipei Times, Thursday, Mar 01, 2007, Page 8
Former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) dropped a bombshell when he announced that he would step down as party chairman and run for president next year immediately after he was indicted for allegedly embezzling from his special mayoral allowance fund.
As far as the pan-blue camp is concerned, Ma’s announcement created up a slew of problems for the KMT. Who will be the new chairman, or will former chairman Lien Chan (連戰) come back for another round? Was it right of the KMT to amend the "black gold exclusion clause" so that Ma could represent it in next year’s election, or should he run as an independent? How should the pan-blue camp approach the year-end legislative elections, or the presidential election?
Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄) has taken over as acting chairman, but the KMT will have to elect a new chairman within three months. Though Wu and the Central Standing Committee want to ask Ma to remain chairman, there is no way he will change his decision. If he were to retain his post, he would be no different from President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).
`The amendment of the "black gold exclusion clause" probably turned the KMT into a loser even though it allows Ma to run on a party ticket next year. Moderate voters see this as accepting the return of corruption.’
If Lien became chairman again, he could use his respect and stature within the party to help stabilize it. He could help avoid a split within the party by moderating any dispute between Ma and Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平). But Lien’s age could make moderate voters think the party has no new leaders, creating the impression that it was still practicing "old man politics."
If Wang runs for KMT chairman, this could rekindle calls to separate party and government. Members might advocate that Ma and Wang each have his own domain, with Wang serving as chairman specifically responsible for party affairs and Ma representing the KMT or the whole pan-blue alliance in next year’s election -- this, of course, assuming that Wang is not paired with Ma on the ticket. If that happened, Wang would not run for party chairman because it would cut short his road to the presidency.
Once Ma’s resignation is final, he or his supporters must still put forward their own candidate to replace him. This could be Wu or someone like KMT Vice Chairman Kuan Chong (關中) or Secretary-General Wu Den-yih (吳敦義).
A more interesting scenario would be for the KMT to make a bold and far-sighted move by ushering in the next generation of leaders. For example, it could groom Taoyuan County Commissioner Chu Li-lun (朱立倫), Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) or Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) to take over by electing one of them to be vice chairman.
The amendment of the "black gold exclusion clause" probably turned the KMT into a loser even though it allows Ma to run on a party ticket next year. Moderate voters see this as accepting the return of corruption. Repealing the clause will allow Ma to run, but he will have to address his appeal to the hard-core blue base, which will turn off moderate blue and green voters.
The media and several opinion polls have stated that Ma’s indictment boosted his popularity and shaken-up the relationships between Ma, Lien and Wang. But in the big picture, this jump in support from pan-blue voters is only a temporary phenomenon. Whether or not Ma is able to sustain it will depend on his interaction with Wang and Lien. Ma and his supporters, therefore, may have no other choice but to respect Lien and woo Wang because the KMT doesn’t have the political capital to sustain a split.
As far as the KMT-People First Party (PFP) alliance is concerned, some top PFP members still hold a grudge against Ma. Some say that now that Ma has been indicted, the two parties should put forward a pan-blue presidential ticket, thereby highlighting the fact that the PFP still exists as an autonomous entity.
Others believe the PFP should support the KMT’s presidential nominee regardless of who he or she is, but these people also oppose the KMT’s amending its anti-corruption clause. This hints at the possibility that the PFP will throw its support behind Wang, for a Wang-Ma ticket. The PFP, however, is not necessarily willing to support a Ma-Wang ticket or give its full backing to Ma running as an independent. For Ma and his supporters, this is both an alarming sign and an enormous challenge.
Ma’s indictment is going to give a boost to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the pan-green camp in the year-end legislative elections and next year’s presidential poll. Although the halving of the number of legislative seats and the new electoral system will hurt the DPP -- especially the redrawn single constituencies -- the KMT will suffer from its lack of clear leadership.
No matter who the new chairman is, he or she will not necessarily be able to smooth over the infighting between the Ma and Wang camps or make the political interests of the KMT and PFP dovetail, not to mention resist challenges posed by the DPP and the pan-green camp. The KMT’s internal conflicts and its disputes with the PFP could give the pan-green camp a chance for a breakthrough in the legislative elections.
The presidential election will no longer be a fight between a clean Ma and the legacy of a corrupt Chen. Instead, it will be a competition between an indicted Ma and Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) or Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), neither of whom are a new Chen Shui-bian. This will be an asset for any pan-green ticket next year, be it Su and DPP spokesperson Tsai Huang-liang (蔡煌瑯) or former acting Kaohsiung mayor Yeh Chu-lan (葉菊蘭), or Hsieh and Vice Premier Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).
Chen Chao-chien is an assistant professor at Ming Chuan University’s department of public affairs.
Translated by Marc Langer
文章定位：
