這是陳朝建，《藍軍路遙知馬力》，中國時報A15版專論，2006/12/10的英文版，載於Taipei Times, Sunday, Dec 17, 2006, Page 8......
Ma faces hard choices before 2008
By Chen Chao-chien 陳朝建
Taipei Times, Sunday, Dec 17, 2006, Page 8
Although the results of last Saturday’s poll meant the political parties maintained their positions in Taipei and Kaohsiung, Democratic Progressive Party Taipei mayoral candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) garnered almost 41 percent of the vote, far higher than predicted by any of the pre-election opinion polls, amounting to victory in defeat. By comparison, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) failed to defeat the scandal-ridden DPP in the Kaohsiung mayoral race, a clear warning signal.
If the mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung were considered a warm-up for the presidential race in early 2008, then DPP Kaohsiung candidate Chen Chu’s (陳菊) triumph can be attributed to her charisma and Hsieh’s record of sound governance as mayor from 1998 to last year, as well as a last-minute endorsement from former DPP chairman Lin I-hsiung (林義雄). In addition, Hsieh’s better-than-expected showing in Taipei is likely to put him in a good position to contest the party’s 2008 presidential nomination with Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌)and other party heavyweights.
The development has also made the KMT understand how long the journey will be to 2008. As KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is about to step down as mayor, he will have to deal with the following issues in his bid for the presidency in 2008.
First, although the KMT secured Taipei and came very close to winning in Kaohsiung, the victory was but minor when looking at the results from the perspective of historical voter patterns. That is, although KMT Taipei mayoral candidate Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) defeated Hsieh by a large margin of 170,000 votes, the party still suffered a defeat as Hsieh increased the DPP’s vote share by 5 percent from four years earlier -- a significant rise.
In this regard, many senior KMT politicians may now begin to doubt Ma’s ability to direct election campaigns. Doubts may also surface about the alleged misuse of his special mayoral allowance. These could undermine the legitimacy of Ma’s leadership, considering the constant rumors about former KMT chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) running on a joint ticket in 2008 instead of Ma and another candidate.
Second, from Dec. 20 until early 2008, Ma will serve only as KMT chairman. After leaving his post as mayor, he will have less administrative resources at his disposal and attract less media attention. In addition, after Ma steps down as mayor, his close aides at Taipei City Hall will have to be reassigned to KMT headquarters. This process could easily lead to conflict between Ma’s loyalists from the city government and other KMT staff. In short, without administrative resources, Ma’s prestige will diminish to a certain extent. The amount of resources will dictate the extent of his influence and political power.
Third, serving as a full-time party chairman, Ma will have to handle follow-up issues related to the KMT’s party assets, prompt payment of salaries, severance pay and pensions, with the DPP in constant pursuit.
If the People First Party (PFP), which suffered a crushing defeat in the elections, decides to support the pan-green camp proposal regarding the handling of the KMT’s party assets, then the KMT will also face an internal storm that could bring the party to the verge of disintegration.
Fourth, Ma will have to deal with the party’s nominations for next year’s legislative elections.
With the reduced number of legislative seats and the redistricting of electoral constituencies, an inability to reach consensus on legislative nominations could easily lead to a conflict among incumbent lawmakers or dissatisfaction among new talent planning to run.
Regardless of whether or not PFP lawmakers will return to the KMT, it will be difficult to handle the decreasing number of electoral districts, and Ma’s leadership and prestige will once again be challenged.
Apart from these issues, the pan-blue heads of local governments are also rising to prominence. Taipei mayor-elect Hau, Taoyuan County Commissioner Chu Li-lun (朱立倫) and Taipei County Commissioner Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) are all geared up to jostle for position in the post-Ma era, ie, who will be representing the KMT in the 2012 or 2016 presidential election. The unpredictable influence of these local figures will not necessarily work to boost Ma’s currency.
In fact, if Ma wants to overcome these potential obstacles, he and his party should stop obstructing policies or bills proposed by the pan-green camp. Signs of resentment among centrist and light-green voters with the pan-blue camp’s filibustering tactics in the legislature can already be seen in the outcome of last week’s mayoral elections.
Showing respect for Lien and promoting Wang constitute Ma’s only political choice if he wants to be able to deal with all internal party issues.
Chen Chao-chien is an assistant professor in the department of public affairs at Ming Chuan University.
Translated by Daniel Cheng.
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