認清中國逐漸茁壯的事實
本文取材自培生教育集團出版的《讀金融時報學英文》 Let China sleep, for when she wakes, s he will shake the world.
讓中國睡吧，因為她一旦醒來，就將震撼世界。
Until recently, the world happily igno red Napoleon's warning. But China is now shaking the world. The US was the first continental, capitalist, economy. The E uropean Union is trying to become a seco nd. Potentially, China dwarfs them both. Already, it is a big, and controversial , presence in the global economy. Its im pact is certain to increase still furthe r. Fear is an inevitable response to thi s growing upheaval. But how far is it ju stified？ And what is the best response ？
不久前，世界還是輕輕鬆鬆，不在意拿破崙的上述警告。但現在，中國正在震撼世界。美國是第一個大陸型資本主義經濟體。歐盟正努力成為第二個。中國則有潛力令前面兩者相形見絀。中國已是全球經濟中龐大且引發爭議的經濟體，它的影響力一定會進一步增強。對於中國這種日益成長的劇烈變化，恐懼是不可避免的。但是，這種恐懼理由何在呢？應當採取怎樣的最好反應呢？
箧potentially：潛在地、可能地
箧dwarf：矮化、阻礙發育
箧controversial：爭論的、可疑的
箧inevitable：不可避免的、慣常的
箧upheaval：劇變、動亂
China's trade performance has, indeed, been astonishing. Between 1980 and 2002 , China's share in global exports and im ports rose from 1.2 per cent and 1.1 per cent, to 5.2 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively. From 1993 to 2002, the vo lume of China's exports of goods rose at an annual rate of 17.3 per cent. If cur rent trends were sustained （which is un likely）, China's exports would surpass those of the US by about 2010. Over the 12 months to May 2003, Chinese exports o f $366bn were the world's fourth largest , after those of the US, Germany and Jap an. Its imports, at $323bn, were the six th largest, but will soon be bigger than those of Japan, the UK and France.
中國的貿易表現的確令人驚訝。1980年至20 02年間，中國占世界出口的比重從1.2％增至5 .2％，進口比重則從1.1％增至4.2％。從1993 年至2002年，中國的商品出口年均增長為17.3 ％。如果目前的趨勢持續下去（雖然不太可能），中國的出口大約在2010年時將超過美國。在2003年5月之前的12個月中，中國的出口總額達到3,660億美元，居全球第4位，僅次於美國、德國和日本。同期中國的進口總額為3,23 0億美元，居全球第6位，而且將很快超過日本、英國和法國。
箧surpass：超越、凌駕
This growth recalls that of Japan. But China's expansion is different, in at l east two respects. First, China's econom y is far more open: its ratio of trade t o gross domestic product, at market pric es, was 44 per cent in 2001, while Japan 's was only 18 per cent. Second, China's exports are far more dependent on inwar d direct investment: in 2000, according to the United Nations' World Investment Report, half China's exports came from f oreign affiliates. China will be a bigge r force in the world economy than Japan, not only because its potential is far l arger but also because it will be far mo re deeply integrated within it.
上述的成長態勢令人想起日本。但是，中國的擴張至少在兩方面不同於日本。其一，中國經濟的開放程度大大高於日本：以市場價格計算，2001年中國的貿易額占國內生產毛額的比重為44％，而日本僅為18％。其二，中國的出口對外國直接投資的依賴程度大大高於日本：聯合國發布的《世界投資報告》顯示，2000年中國出口商品中有一半來自外國在華的附屬公司。中國在全球經濟的力量將超越日本，這不僅因為中國具有比日本更大的潛力，還因為中國融入全球經濟的程度將比日本更深。
箧affiliate：加盟者、成員、分會
To assess the impact of China's trade, one must start with its comparative adv antage and trade policies. The former re sts on almost limitless supplies of chea p labour. The latter have become remarka bly liberal. In 1992, average statutory tariffs on manufactures were 46.5 per ce nt. After accession to the World Trade O rganisation, this will be down to 6.9 pe r cent. For primary products, the declin e is from 22.3 to 3.6 per cent. China al so reduced the coverage of non-tariff ba rriers from 32.5 per cent of imports to 21.6 per cent between 1996 and 2001. Thi s liberalisation further increases the c ompetitiveness of China's exports, becau se a tax on imports is also a tax on exp orts.
要評估中國貿易的影響，必須從中國的比較利益優勢和貿易政策入手。中國的比較優勢在於他幾乎擁有無限的廉價勞動力。中國貿易政策已顯著自由化。1992年，中國對進口製成品平均徵收46.5％的法定關稅。加入WTO後，該稅率將下降至6.9％。對於初級產品，關稅稅率將從22.3％下調至3.6％。從1996年至2001 年，中國還把進口商品實行非關稅障礙的比率從32.5％降至21.6％。這一貿易自由化趨勢進一步提高了中國出口商品的競爭力，因為對進口商品課稅也意味著對出口商品課稅。
箧comparative advantage：比較利益；生產兩類不同貨物，假設生產成本一樣，投入財貨較少卻能產出較多者，稱為具比較利益
箧statutory：法定的、依照法規的
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