本篇是筆者陳朝建，《國民黨真要擺脫派系？》，中國時報A10版時論廣場學者專論，2010/05/27（內容是有關2010年五都選舉中國民黨所面對的地方派系問題之分析）之英文版（由Taipei Times翻譯刊登）......
Factionalism could hurt the KMT
By Chen Chao-chien 陳朝建
Taipei Times, Monday, May 31, 2010, Page 8
The battle for the mayoral elections in the five direct municipalities in November is about to begin. We need to take a look at whether the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has rid itself of its connection to local factions. Taking a closer look, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), who doubles as KMT chairman, and the KMT may desire to part with that old baggage, but they are unable to extract themselves from factional disputes. Both the party’s nomination process and its campaign preparations seem to contain many contradictions.
Take the KMT’s campaign preparations in Taipei City, for example. The party nominated Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌), who is seeking re-election. However, worried that its campaign machinery might be a bit rusty, it also appointed KMT Vice Chairman Chan Chun-po (詹春柏) and John Chiang (蔣孝嚴) to direct the “battle in the capital” against the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) nominee, former premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), who is surging forward. The KMT has no local factions in the capital, but by appointing Chan and Chiang to lead the campaign, the party hopes to stabilize support from its “military” faction, the Huang Fu-hsing (黃復興) branch. This is not much different from cultivating local factions.
Next, let’s look at the KMT’s campaign preparations in Sinbei City. The party does not have a faction entirely covering the new city, as local factions are concentrated in current cities and townships. This makes integration quite difficult. In light of the problem, the party has appointed KMT Vice Chairman Lin Fong-cheng (林豐正) to lead the campaign. Lin, a former Taipei County commissioner, is familiar with all large and small factions in the region and he can help the KMT’s nominee, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), to control the local faction leaders. The problem is that this is contradictory to Ma’s statement that “the KMT will bring down the factions even if it means losing the elections.”
The next example is the KMT’s campaign preparations in Greater Taichung. In Taichung City, local factions have almost disappeared because of the high urbanization and voters’ self-awareness. Still, under the long-term rule of KMT Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強), the so-called “Hsiao family” (蕭家班) among Hu’s deputy Hsiao Chia-chi’s (蕭家旗) supporters has quietly appeared, forming a new kind of political faction, rendering a local leader a powerful official.
In Taichung County, there are three forces: The “Red” faction led by Presidential Office Secretary-General Liao Liou-yi (廖了以), the “Black” faction led by former national policy advisor Chen Kang-chin (陳庚金), and those who swing back and forth between the two factions, especially the Dajia Zhenlan Temple (大甲鎮瀾宮) faction headed by Non-Partisan Solidarity Union Legislator Yen Ching-piao (顏清標). So far, they have been reluctant to cooperate with Hu, which is a cause for concern for the KMT.
Interestingly, after DPP Secretary-General Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) recently announced his candidacy in the Greater Taichung mayoral race, he immediately contacted the KMT’s faction leaders and vote captains. This indicates that the Red and Black factions are beginning to shift and might consider leaning toward the DPP.
For the KMT, a greater danger could arise if Hu is forced to enter into an alliance with Yen during the campaign. By doing so, the party would be labeled pro-faction and pro-black gold and could lose the support of floating voters. In addition, the party appointed KMT Vice Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) to supervise the campaign in that municipality, but Chiang has no connections with local factions there. It is questionable whether he can win over their support for Hu.
Looking at the KMT’s campaign preparations in Greater Tainan, the party nominated the scholarly former KMT legislator Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財) instead of another former KMT legislator, Lee Chuan-chiao (李全教), who had already begun to integrate support from the “Mountain” and “Sea” factions. This method of undermining the local factions is a repetition of the party’s nomination strategy in both the legislative by-election in Yunlin County in September last year and the county elections in December last year. However, without the support of the Mountain and Sea factions in Tainan County along with the Wang (王), Kao (高) and other factions in Tainan City, it will be extremely difficult for Kuo to win the election. In particular, some of Lee’s vote captains have not excluded the possibility of leaning toward the DPP. If this happens, the pan-blue camp might lose Greater Tainan.
Finally, there is the mobilization of supporters in Greater Kaohsiung. Although the party already nominated KMT Legislator Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), supporters of KMT Legislator Ho Tsai-feng (侯彩鳳) have passively boycotted her. Also, Huang hopes to gain support from leading figures of the “White” and the “Red” factions, including Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) and KMT Legislator Lin Yi-shih (林益世). Interestingly, the party appointed two other vice chairpersons — Chiayi Mayor Huang Min-hui (黃敏惠) and Vice Legislative Speaker Tseng Yung-chuan (曾永權) — to supervise the campaign in Greater Tainan and Greater Kaohsiung respectively, and to support each other. One of the purposes is to avoid too much involvement of the local factions dominated by the Wangs in the elections — an attempt to suppress the local factions.
In conclusion, the KMT does not really have any local factions in Taipei City, but it continues to support the Huang Fu-hsing military faction. In Sinbei City, Greater Taichung and Greater Tainan, the party nominated members of its elite, all with good images, though they all have a love-hate relationship with the local factions. On one hand it enters into alliances with them, but on the other it attempts to suppress them. With such a disorganized approach, party reform will be half-baked as it maintains an ambiguous relationship with factions, a dynamic that blocks attempts at reform.
Chen Chao-chien is an assistant professor in the Graduate School of Public Affairs at Ming Chuan University.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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