十六日出版的「經濟學人」雜誌刊出以「馬英九：笨拙的總統」(Ma the bumbler)為題的報導，指出馬英九主政近五年來，由於經常政策反覆，且缺乏決斷，使他從「振奮人心」淪為「光華盡失」。
曾讓台灣民眾寄予厚望
當馬英九於二○○八年首度當選總統時，曾讓台灣民眾寄予厚望，台灣經濟新頁將於焉展開。他當時承諾，與中國大陸達成突破性協定，以結束台灣經濟日益邊緣化的狀況。此時馬英九的形象是一位清廉的技術官員，能超脫所屬國民黨的用人唯親陋習及內鬥。與性格火爆且主張台獨、如今身陷囹圄的前總統陳水扁兩相對照，他廣受歡迎。
滿意度劇降至空前低點
五年之後，儘管他在十個月之前順利當選連任，但已今非昔比。尤其引人注意者，依據TVBS民調中心的數據，民眾對馬英九的滿意度已劇降到百分之十三的空前低點。國人似乎有一共識：馬英九是一位笨拙而徒勞無功的總統。
貧窮線下家庭迅速增加
一般民眾並未覺得生活獲得改善。薪資水準已停滯十年之久。與大陸關係更加開放│包括簽署一項自由貿易協定（ECFA）│的最明顯影響，在於引發房地產投機，因為預期陸資將潮湧而至。台北市周邊原本是勞工階級居住的住宅，房價目前高達全國平均年薪一萬五千四百美元（約合台幣四十五萬元）的四十倍。生活在貧窮線以下的家庭也大增。工運人士也不時向總統府扔雞蛋。
政策反覆、缺乏決斷力
出口占台灣國內生產毛額的百分之七十；因此台灣經濟的一些問題，的確反映著工業國家經濟低迷的實況。但馬英九的領導也難辭其咎。他一直未能規劃出更有希望的前景，而且有時也無法執行一些現在就須動手的棘手措施。尤有甚者，他經常因為反對黨或媒體的批評而政策反覆。這顯示他優柔寡斷。
民眾最早在今年六月發出怒吼，當時馬英九調漲受政府補貼的電價。儘管台電公司嚴重虧損，絕大部分民眾卻無法理解這麼做原因何在。面對民眾的怒火，馬英九乃將原訂於今年十二月實施的第二波電價調漲延到明年。
人民也擔心勞退基金不到廿年便會破產。但馬英九卻不敢大幅調高保費，因為這可能使他聲望暫時下降。當馬英九試圖訴諸台灣廣大的中間選民時，又常遭國民黨核心支持者掣肘。民眾抱怨退休軍公教是特權集團後，內閣便宣布計畫削減年終慰問金逾三億美元，約有卅八萬一千人將受影響。麻煩在於榮民是國民黨最死忠的支持者。如今有些人威脅要上街頭抗議，並且票不投給國民黨，直到這項計畫取消為止。另一方面，馬英九清廉的形象，也因行政院秘書長涉貪被起訴而蒙上汙點。
國民黨的門面已出現裂痕
國民黨的門面已出現裂痕。最近連勝文便批評馬英九的經濟政策，指出值此經濟成長遲滯之際，任何現任官員頂多只是「丐幫幫主」而已。
他的信譽卻如江河日下
然而距下次選舉還有四年，而有意爭取總統大位者並不急著將他攆下台，甚至不願鋒芒蓋過他。他們畢竟不願為國家的經濟問題承擔責任。目前並無跡象顯示馬英九的主要政策將會改變（或應該改變），然而他的信譽卻如江河日下。
WHEN he was first elected in 2008, Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, offered Taiwanese high hopes that the island’s economy would open a new chapter. He promised ground-breaking agreements with China to help end Taiwan’s growing economic marginalisation. At the time, Mr Ma’s image was of a clean technocrat able to rise above the cronyism and infighting of his party, the Kuomintang (KMT). He was a welcome contrast to his fiery and pro-independence predecessor, Chen Shui-bian, now in jail for corruption.
Five years on, and despite being handily re-elected ten months ago, much has changed. In particular, popular satisfaction with Mr Ma has plummeted, to a record low of 13%, according to the TVBS Poll Centre. The country appears to agree on one thing: Mr Ma is an ineffectual bumbler.
Ordinary people do not find their livelihoods improving. Salaries have stagnated for a decade. The most visible impact of more open ties with China, which include a free-trade agreement, has been property speculation in anticipation of a flood of mainland money. Housing in former working-class areas on the edge of Taipei, the capital, now costs up to 40 times the average annual wage of $15,400. The number of families below the poverty line has leapt. Labour activists have taken to pelting the presidential office with eggs.
Exports account for 70% of GDP. So some of Taiwan’s problems are down to the dismal state of rich-world economies. Yet Mr Ma’s leadership is also to blame. He has failed to paint a more hopeful future, with sometimes hard measures needed now. Worse, he frequently tweaks policies in response to opposition or media criticism. It suggests indecisiveness.
Public anger first arose in June, when Mr Ma raised the price of government-subsidised electricity. Few Taiwanese understood why, even though Taiwan’s state-owned power company loses billions. In the face of public outrage, Mr Ma postponed a second round of electricity price rises scheduled for December. They will now take place later next year.
People are also worried that a national pension scheme is on course for bankruptcy in less than two decades. Yet Mr Ma cannot bring himself to raise premiums sharply, because of the temporary unpopularity it risks. When Mr Ma does try to appeal to Taiwanese who make up the island’s broad political centre, it often backfires with his party’s core supporters. Following public grumbles that retired civil servants, teachers and ex-servicemen were a privileged group, the cabinet announced plans to cut more than $300m in year-end bonuses, affecting around 381,000. The trouble was, veterans are among the KMT’s most fervent backers. Now some threaten to take to the streets in protest and deprive the KMT of their votes until the plan is scrapped. Meanwhile, Mr Ma’s clean image has been sullied by the indictment of the cabinet secretary-general for graft.
Cracks are starting to grow in the KMT façade. Recently Sean Lien, a prominent politician, criticised Mr Ma’s economic policies, saying that any politician in office during this time of sluggish growth was at best a “master of a beggar clan”—implying a country of paupers.
But the next election is four years away, and presidential hopefuls will not try to oust or even outshine Mr Ma anytime soon. After all, they will not want to take responsibility for the country’s economic problems. Nothing suggests Mr Ma’s main policies will change (or that they should), but his credibility is draining by the day.
from the print edition
