There was an interminable civil war with the north that began in the 1950s. When it finally ended with a 2005 peace deal, it was almost immediately threatened by the death of the south's leader, and Sudanese vice-president, John Garang, in a helicopter crash. But, finally, after a six-year disengagement, the climax arrived with the overwhelming vote for separation in January and now – with the grudging acquiescence of Khartoum – the birth of a nation. It is a significant achievement for the UN, helped by a little judicious arm-twisting from President Obama; and it is a great day for the South Sudanese, whose lives have been cursed by two generations of insecurity: 2 million dead, at least as many displaced. They have good cause to dance on the streets of Juba.

But this is only the end of the beginning, and the future is a very uncertain place. Relations with the north are an abiding difficulty, and internal relations are unpromising too. The Dinka majority has grasped such levers of power as exist – the government and the army – leaving the non-Dinka fifth of the population feeling shut out of senior positions and denied access to development funds. Despite promises made during the period of co-operation that secured the triumphant referendum result, proposals for a more federal structure of government that might lead to more geographically even development are beginning to look worthless. Juba is determined to stay in control.

This is a country that should have golden prospects. It could become a cornucopia of wheat and meat for its less fertile neighbours like drought-stricken Ethiopia and Kenya to the east. And as well as its agricultural resources there are large oil reserves, gold, and other minerals. There is a relatively small population, newly swollen by many highly educated returnees. Their expectations are limitless.

So the question for the international community, after its constructive role in helping to end the war, is how to support development that makes such wealth a blessing, not a curse. The transition from war of liberation to peacetime government has too often been the proverbially well-intentioned road to hell. The new country's friends can help buttress the good intentions by a focus on maintaining security in rural areas, building capacity in the regional capitals, and delivering technical support in agriculture. What they must not do is walk away. Independence is an event, but it is also a process, slow and fraught with danger.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jul/09/south-sudan-independence-day