Taiwan’s quest for independence likely to wane after election
By Edward Wong
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
TAIPEI: The two candidates in Taiwan’s fiercely contested presidential election are both pushing for closer ties with mainland China, signaling that no matter who wins the vote on March 22, the government here will probably move to defuse tensions arising from a fervent independence movement supported by the current president.
The candidates, Ma Ying-jeou and Frank Hsieh, differ in how quickly and to what degree they would warm to China. But both envision bringing Taiwan further into China’s economic orbit and backing away from any notions of separatism, thus repudiating the strident nationalist policies of President Chen Shui-bian. In the past eight years, Chen has angered officials in both Beijing and Washington - and stirred anxiety among many Taiwanese - with his confrontational attitude toward China.
"Both sides will try to seek common ground and seek engagement across the straits," said Philip Yang, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, who has advised the Ma campaign. "If Ma is elected, the pace will be faster, and with bigger expectations."
Ma, a Harvard-educated lawyer, is favored by polls and political analysts to beat Hsieh, who is from Chen’s party and is campaigning in the president’s shadow.
Ma’s Nationalist party, also known as the Kuomintang, ruled Taiwan for 51 years, often with an iron grip, until Chen was elected in 2000. The party’s revival this year is rooted in widespread disenchantment with Chen, whose Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, took power on a wave of optimism.
Chen initially tapped a deep vein of support among many Taiwanese, especially those whose ancestors have lived in Taiwan for generations and do not feel close cultural or political ties to China, for steps to promote Taiwan’s separate identity. Many Taiwanese also hoped Chen would wipe clean the corruption and authoritarianism that had been associated with the Kuomintang, the party of Chiang Kai-shek, whose forces retreated here after their defeat by the Communists on the mainland in 1949.
Instead, Chen has been mired in corruption scandals involving close family members. His tireless efforts to promote independence also created constant tension with the mainland and led to repeated disagreements with the United States, which has helped guarantee Taiwan’s security but has discouraged unilateral steps by either side to resolve the island’s political status.
In the end, Chen alienated people in the broad center of the Taiwan electorate who say they support the status quo and who depend on growing economic ties across the Taiwan Strait. As he finishes his second term, his popularity ratings are in the 20s and many political analysts consider his presidency a failure.
Despite the moderation of the presidential candidates this year, tensions between Taiwan and China, as well as friction with the White House, have grown heated over what looks to be Chen’s parting shot.
The president has put up for a vote on March 22 a referendum that asks whether this island should apply to join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan rather than the Republic of China, as it is formally known. The island left the UN in 1971 when the General Assembly recognized the Communists as China’s legitimate government.
Last week, a Chinese government spokesman said that Chen’s government would pay "a heavy price" if it pushed forward with the referendum, which Beijing sees as a move toward legal independence.
In trying to establish himself as a centrist voice, Ma has criticized the referendum and other government policies aimed at stoking nationalist sentiments.
"The DPP’s drive toward de jure independence led only to Taiwan’s internal decay and international isolation," Ma, 57, said at a recent news conference. "It is therefore high time for both Taiwan and the mainland to revert to what I call the three no’s: no talks on reunification during my term of office, no pursuit of de jure independence and no use of force by either side."
Many of the policies proposed by both Ma and Hsieh, 61, are similar, though Ma appears more willing to engage directly with Beijing.
Since campaigning began in earnest, Ma has been dogged by issues of character, with Hsieh relentlessly questioning him on his loyalty to Taiwan. Hsieh has accused Ma of hiding the fact that he once received a green card from the United States, granting him permanent residency there - a sign, Hsieh said, that Ma had little faith in Taiwan’s future. Ma said he got the green card while he was a student and that the card was voided in the 1980s.
Hsieh has been trying to distance himself from Chen by proposing more-moderate policies toward the mainland. Hsieh wants to maintain the status quo rather than push for independence, said Hsiao Bi-khim, a spokeswoman.
He has proposed allowing direct Chinese investment in Taiwan and lifting a 40 percent cap on Taiwan investment in China, with the exception of investment in certain industries such as defense.
Hsieh has also avoided talking much about the controversial UN referendum, although many party members continue to believe in its importance.
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