這篇文章對台灣的現況有相當錯誤的解讀，北高兩市選舉，兩小黨都失利被解釋成兩大黨走向中間路線，台灣人民希望與中國降低緊張（不知緊張在那？），兩岸５０年和平協議的呼聲愈來愈高（那聽說有人討論了，除了那位馬英九偶而只敢到國外說一二句的）。但是卻無視於政大的一項民調，仍有五成四的民眾在中國反對下仍要支持台灣獨立的。中國不反對當然就更高了。自認自己是台灣人而己的比例已經高達六成以上。這樣的趨勢作者視若無睹。事實上，這次選舉才是證明台灣人民不看政策、政見、形象，只看藍綠立場。亦即只看統獨，在高雄統派色彩的人絕不可能贏的，不管如何，在台北綠營的人也是原罪不可能贏。要問的是：全台灣是高雄現象多還是台北呢？情勢很清楚。
文中訪問的雷倩之類的人，主張５０年和平協議的，要請問她：５０年後她應該已作古當然無所謂，但是我的小孩還在，他們怎麼辦？這種不顧子孩幸福推向獨裁專制的人。大家不應譴責？
For many in Taiwan, status quo with China sounds fine
By Patrick L. Smith Published: December 11, 2006
After decades of tension in its relations with the mainland, Taiwan’s political class is mulling over the idea of a settlement with China that would defer the question of the island’s sovereign status for up to 50 years.
The initiative to formalize the status quo in relations across the Taiwan Strait is linked to figures within the opposition Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, but the idea is gaining currency among scholars, policy planners and analysts outside the party.
Discussions have even involved leaders in the governing Democratic Progressive Party, although the party and its leader, President Chen Shui-bian,
remain committed to asserting formal independence for Taiwan.
Senior officials in the Chen administration remain publicly adamant about the president’s position.
"Any agreement with China now is not realistic," said Joseph Wu, who heads the executive’s Mainland Affairs Council. "There’s nothing to negotiate."
The prospect of a deal to stabilize cross-strait ties has been obscured this year by Chen’s recurring political troubles. No such accord is expected while he remains in office.
But the idea of setting aside political and diplomatic issues for a fixed interim is a compelling one for Taiwan’s electorate, which overwhelmingly supports stable relations with Beijing even as it craves more international respect and recognition for Taiwan.
For Taiwan, improving relationships with China are increasingly an economic imperative. Taiwan’s direct investments on the mainland grew by more than 40 percent in the first half of this year to nearly $3 billion, according to official Taiwan figures.
There are now up to a million Taiwan citizens living on the mainland, roughly half of them permanently. Business ties across the Taiwan Strait have become so strong that the government can hardly risk threatening them.
"We’re looking at a 30- to 50-year peace accord," said Joanna Lei, a Kuomintang legislator and a prominent theorist in the party’s younger generation.
"This is the direction public opinion is taking — slowly, like a cargo carrier, but absolutely it is changing," Lei said.
The "status quo agreement," as the notion has come to be known, appears likely to emerge as a principal campaign issue as Chen’s second and final term draws to a close in 2008.
Taiwan’s voters are shying away from the assertive stance on independence that propelled Chen to office six years ago. While a strong sense of a separate identity remains, there is growing impatience with cross-strait tensions and anxiety over the island’s future.
Surveys show that about 60 percent of people favor maintaining the status quo in relations with China.
A strong sense of Taiwan’s economic accomplishments and identity has long been a feature of local political culture, and until recently this tilt had put the Nationalists at a disadvantage.
A turning point came last year, however, when Lien Chan, the Kuomintang chairman at the time, traveled to China for the first of two visits. Both visits — the second was last April — were seen as a sign that healthier relations with the mainland were possible and that the Nationalists may be able to reduce tensions that had grown since Chen took office.
"Lien Chan’s visit changed the climate," said Emile Sheng, a political scientist at Soochow University. "The Nationalists are now much more confident talking about ’economic integration.’ It’s no longer considered disloyal."
The shift in public sentiment was underscored in mayoral elections in the southern city of Kaohsiung, the island’s large port city where pro-independence views are traditionally strong and where Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party draws its core support.
The election was seen as a bellwether of voter sentiment and is likely to strengthen the determination of those advocating an accommodation with Beijing.
The governing party candidate won by the smallest margin in Taiwan’s political history: 1,114 votes out of more than 770,000 cast. The vote is now to be recounted after the Kuomintang contested the results, although most expect the governing party’s narrow victory to stand.
Kaohsiung voters soundly rejected both the People First Party, which advocates a scheme for reunification with China, and the Taiwan Solidarity Union, which calls for an immediate declaration of Taiwan independence.
The Kuomintang, while retaining reunification with China as a guiding principle, now portrays itself as the party that can bring stable relations with the mainland and defend the status quo, which has brought prosperity to the majority of Taiwan’s 22 million people and allowed the island’s rambunctious and highly participatory democracy to thrive.
The Kuomintang’s probable presidential contender in 2008, Ma Ying-jeou, who is also party chairman, has been increasingly assertive over the past year in advocating economic integration with China while leaving the nature of the relationship unclear.
"We’re now openly calling for status quo maintenance," said Su Chi, a senior Nationalist legislator. "This means no independence, no unification."
Getting China to sign on to the idea is another matter. A formal accord would be historic breakthrough in cross-strait relations and remove a longstanding cause of tension and instability in Asia.
Any negotiations would likely be lengthy, arduous and subject to disruption. Beijing would be reluctant to see Taiwan enter international organizations under its own name or allow it to sign treaties on its own behalf.
Nonetheless, China may be prepared to discuss the kind of agreement now being debated in Taiwan, analysts here say. While Beijing has given up on Chen as a negotiating partner, analysts here say, it would be prepared to open talks with his successor even if the next president comes from Chen’s party.
"China has its ear to the ground now and is learning what people are actually saying," said Andrew Yang, who heads the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a research institute.
"It’s clear that an agreement is realistic from Beijing’s perspective. For China the issue is how to accommodate Taiwan people’s needs. It’s no longer a question of principle."
Other observers are more skeptical.
"There’s theory and there’s practice, and on the functional questions there could be big differences," said Lo Chi- cheng, who heads the political science department at Soochow University. "How do you divide territorial waters? How do you divide air space? Can we join the World Trade Organization?"
The agreement now being debated appears to be modeled at least loosely on the pact guaranteeing Hong Kong 50 years of autonomy, signed between London and Beijing before Britain returned the territory to China in 1997.
Some Taiwanese intellectuals and business executives are also studying the concept of a Chinese commonwealth, modeled after the British commonwealth, as a way of integrating Taiwan economically while overcoming its political and diplomatic isolation.
Sources on all sides of the debate stress that progress on any such arrangement with Beijing will have to wait until Chen leaves office.
The elections in 2008 are viewed widely as the moment when substantial progress in cross-strait relations may begin. A Kuomintang victory would almost certainly produce an effort to advance ties, analysts and party officials say.
Several analysts said that a president from the governing party who is more pragmatic than Chen, and who draws support from different sources, could also pursue a status quo agreement.
"Independence has reached its limit as a political idea," said Yang. "People want better relations with China, not formal political relations."
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