委內瑞拉總統Chávez 高票壓倒性連任成功，他標榜的是社會主義，但以中國開放式經濟為師，近來油價高漲，讓這個國家經濟實力大增，是導致他連任順利成功的主因。由於他的反美，與中國走的愈來愈近，加上油價上漲帶來的豐富資金，其走向值得密切注意。將是另一個威權、社會主義開放經濟，帶著擴張霸權的危險國家。
Chávez rides wave of Venezuela’s economic growth
By Simon Romero
The New York Times
Sunday, December 3, 2006
To understand why Hugo Chávez seemed assured of victory in the presidential election on Sunday - strengthening his mandate for what he calls a socialist revolution - consider the vigor here of that most capitalist of institutions: the stock exchange.
Housed in El Rosal, an upscale district with new skyscrapers and hotels, the Caracas stock exchange was the site of frenzied trading last week. Its main index climbed to a record high of 46,741, topping off a 129.2 percent rise this year that has made it one of the best performing markets in the world. On Friday, the index climbed 8 percent for its biggest daily gain in four years.
"For all of Chávez’s faults, his government has been extremely pragmatic in economic terms," said José Guerra, a former chief of economic research at Venezuela’s central bank.
"State-supported capitalism isn’t just surviving under Chávez. It is thriving."
Often lost in the campaigning between Chávez and his challenger, Manuel Rosales, is that Venezuela, with the largest conventional petroleum reserves outside the Middle East, is having one of the most significant oil booms in its history. Economic growth this year is set to pass 10 percent, making Venezuela’s the fastest-growing economy in the Americas.
The Chávez government, while wrapping itself in socialist imagery - like red clothing - and deepening its alliance with Fidel Castro’s Cuba, has made this expansion possible by quietly working with Venezuela’s banking system. The rush of oil revenue into the economy has led bank deposits to climb 84 percent in the past 12 months, according to Softline Consultores, a financial consulting business here.
The boom is evident in an economy that has put financial speculation and conspicuous consumption ahead of domestic manufacturing. For instance, Ford and General Motors will sell 300,000 cars in the country this year.
Economists describe Venezuela as a "harbor economy" because of its lust for imported goods.
"Many people say we’re in a profound political and social crisis," said Michael Penfold-Becerra, an economist at the Institute of Higher Administrative Studies, a Caracas business school. "On the contrary, we’ve returned to a temporary period of harmony. Oil is buying us a certain social peace and stability."
Neither candidate in the election on Sunday seems to acknowledge the growing consumerism in rich and poor households as one of the main reasons Chávez has resilient popularity ratings after eight years as president. Most opinion polls give him a double-digit lead over Rosales, governor of the oil- producing Zulia State in the west.
Chávez makes frequent exhortations in favor of socialism, sometimes describing Jesus Christ as the first socialist and Judas as the first capitalist. Rosales said in an interview that Chávez, who has deepened ties with Cuba by bringing thousands of Cuban doctors to Venezuela in exchange for subsidized oil, was "implementing a Castro-style system of autocratic rule in Venezuela."
While Chávez promises socialism, historians say that in effect he is delivering old-fashioned populism.
He is often compared with Carlos Andrés Pérez, the populist president who oversaw economic expansion in the 1970s when Venezuela also benefited from higher oil prices.
"Chávez has a problem in that what he calls his socialist revolution never involved the overthrow of a dictator like Batista or Somoza," said Alberto Barrera Tyszka, who co-wrote a biography of Chávez.
"He’s redefining socialism as a concept that could exist only in Venezuela, where it is characterized by hatred of George Bush and an excess of BMWs and Audis."
Some Chávez economic policies draw inspiration from formulas used with mixed results in the developing and industrialized worlds in the 1960s and 1970s.
These include price controls for food and gasoline, strict limits on buying and selling foreign currency and caps on everything from lending rates at banks to hourly fees at parking lots.
At the same time, the government has channeled billions of dollars in oil revenue into social welfare programs and small cooperatives intended to produce goods to replace imports on the domestic market. The government says these efforts are moving Venezuela toward a "21st-century socialism."
Oil is at the heart of the development model. Venezuela, in contrast to oil-exporting countries like Mexico or Saudi Arabia that tightly circumscribe the operations of foreign oil companies, produces oil in ventures with some of the largest private energy companies, including Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell. And the government works closely with Venezuelan and foreign banks to maintain economic stability.
Unlike Rafael Correa, the newly elected president of Ecuador, who plans to renegotiate the foreign debt, Chávez has made every effort to meet Venezuela’s obligations with foreign lenders.
As a result, markets still consider Venezuelan bonds about as safe an investment as bonds issued by Brazil, a neighboring industrial powerhouse.
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